FRA9 · 02/09/2026 · Economy & expertise
French public debt: €3.536tn, the 10-year rate and the next key dates
Agence France Trésor published a 4.19% TEC 10 reference rate for 1 September 2026, while the latest Insee measure puts public debt at €3,536.1bn, or 117.5% of GDP, at the end of March. The two figures measure different things: one is a daily market reference and the other a consolidated quarterly debt stock.
Agence France Trésor published a 4.19% TEC 10 reference rate for 1 September 2026, while the latest Insee measure puts public debt at €3,536.1bn, or 117.5% of GDP, at the end of March. The two figures measure different things: one is a daily market reference and the other a consolidated quarterly debt stock.
Why French debt is trending again
On 1 September 2026, Agence France Trésor published a 4.19% TEC 10. At the same time, debt returned to France’s active search trends with more than 10,000 queries. The market figure is dated and can move every day: it should not be treated as a permanent rate or confused with the coupon on one specific OAT bond.
The official figure: €3,536.1 billion
At the end of the first quarter of 2026, Maastricht public debt stood at €3,536.1bn, or 117.5% of GDP, up from 115.7% at the end of 2025. It rose by €75.6bn during the quarter. Insee also reports net debt of €3,301.1bn, or 109.7% of GDP, after subtracting a defined set of comparable financial assets.
Debt, deficit and the GDP ratio are different
Debt is a stock measured on a date; the deficit is the flow of spending minus revenue over a period. The debt-to-GDP ratio compares the stock with one year of output and can change because debt, GDP or both move. Insee warns that a quarterly debt change cannot directly reveal the deficit, particularly because cash and financial-asset movements differ.
Who borrows and which instruments are used
The Maastricht measure consolidates central government, other central bodies, local authorities and social-security administrations by removing debts they owe each other. Negotiable securities represented €3,170.8bn at the end of March. For the State, AFT mainly issues short-term BTF bills and medium- or long-term OAT bonds; average negotiable-debt maturity was 8 years and 163 days on 31 July.
What the 10-year rate actually means
TEC 10 is a ten-year yield reference derived from the OAT market; it is neither the average cost of the whole debt stock nor a retail loan rate. An increase first affects new issuance and securities that must be refinanced. Existing fixed-rate bonds keep their coupons, spreading the effect over years instead of instantly repricing all €3.536tn.
What it can mean for households, firms and the budget
Persistently higher sovereign yields can gradually raise interest spending and narrow the room for public services, tax reductions or investment. They also feed into market and bank benchmarks, but do not alone set a mortgage, a business loan or France’s Livret A savings rate. Inflation, ECB policy, bank risk, loan duration and borrower profile remain separate inputs.
Ratings: use the calendar without calling a default
Rating agencies assess capacity and willingness to repay, but their scales, outlooks and dates differ. AFT’s calendar showed Fitch at A+ stable after its 28 August decision; DBRS and Scope have indicative dates on 18 September, Moody’s on 23 October and S&P on 27 November. A negative outlook signals review risk; it is not an automatic default event.
The next three checkpoints
At 10:50 Paris time on 3 September, AFT is due to auction four long-dated OAT lines for an announced €11.5bn–€13.5bn, settling on 7 September. DBRS and Scope decisions are scheduled for 18 September. On 29 September at 08:45, Insee will publish second-quarter debt, the next stock figure directly comparable with March’s 117.5%.
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